EVANSVILLE — Forced by data that says coronavirus is zigging when they thought it might zag, local medical and health officials say Vanderburgh County residents face a moment of truth.
Days after Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb unveiled a plan to incrementally ease restrictions in five stages — "Governor Holcomb's Roadmap to Safely Reopen Indiana" — Vanderburgh County faces a resurgence of COVID-19, the illness caused by the deadly virus.
"We have seen, over the last couple of days, things go up some," Deaconess Health System President Dr. James Porter said grimly on Facebook Live late Tuesday.
More people hospitalized in Evansville
Porter disclosed that Deaconess has 14 hospitalized COVID-19 patients — double the number the health system reported two weeks ago. With the Vanderburgh County Health Department reporting that 12 percent of 161 local COVID-19 patients are hospitalized, that would mean five or six more are at Ascension St. Vincent Evansville.
Deaconess got 11 positive tests results on Monday alone, Porter said, calling it "higher than we’ve seen in some time."
The Indiana State Department of Health's statewide dashboard of positive cases reported Wednesday that positive coronavirus cases in Vanderburgh County had jumped by 10 to 163, a number that typically differs slightly from the local health department's data.
A warning: COVID-19 isn't gone
The numbers are not catastrophic. Hospital leaders all over the country have cited models reporting that roughly 80 percent of coronavirus patients will be able to be treated at home. That means, of course, that 20 percent would be hospitalized. Vanderburgh County hasn't reached that unhappy benchmark.
Moreover, while Vanderburgh County may have registered 163 positive test results, there are still just two-dozen active cases, according to the local health department. The other individuals who have tested positive have recovered.
But the new numbers are worrisome to Porter, who said social distancing, wearing masks and avoiding crowds of people are as important now as ever before.
"Just because the state has decided that they’re going to try to re-open doesn’t mean that COVID-19 is gone," the Deaconess president said. "It doesn’t mean that it’s any less contagious than it ever was. It doesn’t mean that it’s any less deadly than it ever was."
Local residents have come to a crucial crossroads in the fight against COVID-19, Porter said.
Increased interpersonal activity 'a real balancing act'
"While we’re re-opening — and it is important for us to try to get people back to work as much as possible and not continue having the devastating effects that we’re seeing with the economy — we’re in a real balancing act here with trying to figure out how much interpersonal activity can happen and there not be an overwhelming surge of people with this infection," he said.
Joe Gries, administrator for the Vanderburgh County Health Department, said residents must look inward and ask themselves how vigilant they are willing to be to keep a lid on coronavirus.
Gries declined to offer an opinion on the wisdom of Holcomb's re-opening plan — but he said residents will determine its success or failure.
"It depends on how careful people are — how businesses react and what measures they put in place to make sure their employees and their patrons are safe," he said. "It depends on the public in general and how cautious they are. Do they listen to the recommendations?"
"It depends on how people protect themselves and not be irresponsible in maybe not following the rules."
Upward trend in cases was unforeseen
The new upward trend in Vanderburgh County wasn't what Deaconess officials had foreseen.
In an April 23 Facebook Live appearance with Porter, Dr. Diane Hunt, the health system's chief medical information officer, said the local peak of coronavirus patients "is likely to be occurring right now. We’re probably right in the middle of that plateau period.
"I think we’re probably going to be in the plateau for the next week or so," Hunt said. "I think we’re going to have a fairly steady rate – last week, this week, but potentially next week as well.
"And then I hope to see that we’re going to start dropping off."
But Gries noted Wednesday that new cases haven't stopped rolling in.
"We’re still seeing cases every day," the health department administrator said. "I think over the weekend, labs and tests are fewer and far between than during the week, so we’ve seen maybe a little bit of a drop in the early part of this week.
"But we do still see new cases every day, so there is continued spread within the community. That‘s going to continue, more than likely."
Officials: Wear masks in public
Porter and Dr. Brad Scheu, primary care medical director for Deaconess physicians, said local residents who want to help can do one thing right away: Wear masks in public.
"If your question is, what can I do to help this at this point – you’re not in health care, you’re just a citizen in the public – what can you do? It’s wear that mask. That’s the best thing you can be doing to protect your neighbor," Scheu said.
“There’s a lot of data we don’t know about this but we’re seeing a lot more data about all the asymptomatic carriers, and there’s some real concern there about who may have it that doesn’t know it, and the only way that person can protect their neighbor is wearing that mask."
Porter made an appeal to conscience.
"I think it’s easy to think, 'I feel fine, I’ve been mostly isolating' – but we all have exposure," he said. "Unless you’re staying in the house by yourself, not being around the people who are going to the grocery store and doing other essential functions, you have some risk.
"And man, it would be terrible to be that person who ended up at some point realizing that you had infected untold numbers of people and maybe some vulnerable people that ended up doing not well at all as a result of it."
The indications that things are not headed in the right direction could be enough to motivate some residents. Those indications are found in numbers big and small.
Cases impacting nursing homes
Two weeks ago, Gries said he knew of no county resident living in a nursing home who has acquired COVID-19.
Asked Wednesday if he can say the same thing today, he hesitated and said he can't by law reveal any specific person's condition. Pressed for a non-specific answer, he sighed.
"There are residents now," he said.