BY ROBYN MONAGHAN, Times of Northwest Indiana
rmonaghan@nwitimes.com
VALPARAISO | Two obstacles have raised questions about the future of bringing South Shore commuter rail service to Valparaiso and Lowell, however, officials are hopeful they're not enough to derail the project.
On paper, Northwest Indiana may not be growing fast enough to land Federal Transit Administration funds to bring commuter rail to Valparaiso and Lowell. And Canadian National railroad brass have said their tracks are too busy to share lines with commuter rail, executives from the company that operates the South Shore line said Friday.
The Northern Indiana Commuter Transportation District, which runs the South Shore, would have to lay new track. That would cost more than $10 million a mile, or about $250 million to build new track the nearly 25 miles from Munster to Valparaiso.
Coming up with an extra quarter of a billion dollars to buy new track is one thing. Getting the population growth numbers onto the competitive playing field for federal cash is another. It's the message Gerald Hanas, NICTD general manager told area business people Friday morning at the Valparaiso Chamber of Commerce.
Porter, LaPorte and Lake county population tallies are projected to increase an average of 6 percent by 2030, according to state agency population projections provided by NICTD. That figure pales in comparison to other commuter rail projects vying for federal transportation money. Salt Lake City, which recently got the green light from the feds for its commuter line, has a projected population hike of 82 percent, according to NICTD information.
"At the end of the day, we certainly think this can be successful," Hanas said. "But the one thing we do know is that those population numbers have to grow if any of this is to take place."
In the end, growth projections will be the key to deciding who gets commuter rail first. Planners now see the West Lake Expansion - as the commuter rail extension is called - as a project to be done in phases. NICTD would run a leg to Munster, then a branch to either Lowell or Valparaiso. NICTD doesn't yet know which will come first, officials say.
Those state population projection numbers downplay actual population growth in Northwest Indiana, Hanas says. The statistics, figured from birth and death records, do not account for people moving in and out of the area. The mathematic model used to calculate Indiana population trends assume outgoing and incoming residents will cancel out one another. In areas like Northwest Indiana, close to major metropolitan areas, that is far form the case, Hanas said.
Other population numbers presented in the PolicyAnalytics economic and demographics report commissioned by NICTD, show a growth spurt of more than 2.1 million by 2030, while the state population projection shows about 1.2 million. Federal Transit Administration regulations specify using those figures, Hanas said.
"The figures being used that don't account for population inflow do not reflect the climate of growth in Northwest Indiana," said Bill Sheldrake, president of PolicyAnalytics.
NICTD is trying to persuade money-granters at the federal Department of Transportation to accept more favorable population figures, which local planners say are more accurate. But, with twice as much money for commuter and light rail projects approved as dollars allotted, the FTA is a very hard sell. At best, getting the federal windfall is a three to five year process, officials say.
Valparaiso Mayor Jon Costas remains hopeful, however.
"Any big idea always has hurdles," Costas said. "Let's take a harder look at it, adjust our sail and find a way to get this done in time, because it makes total sense."