By James D. Wolfe Jr., Post-Tribune correspondent
VALPARAISO - The state's population growth prediction method has put a crimp in plans to extend South Shore commuter rail lines to Valparaiso and Lowell.
The Indiana Business Research Center bases the growth estimate on birth and death rates and does not consider migration, said John Parsons of the Northern Indiana Commuter Transportation District.
Because of that, NICTD recently discovered the numbers appear too low to get federal money for the project, officials told the Greater Valparaiso Chamber of Commerce on Friday.
The state predicts 6 percent growth for Porter, Lake and LaPorte counties through 2030 - less than a quarter of a percent each year, Parsons said.
The Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission, which would help make applications for federal funds, is required to use those figures.
"We need more of a localized forecast," NICTD General Manager Gerald Hanas said.
For Salt Lake City, which got federal funding for commuter rails, Utah projects 53 percent growth through 2030; Will County in Illinois is projected to grow 27 percent. Each state uses different methods of projecting, Hanas said.
NICTD has data that shows higher growth here. A report done by Policy Analytics in May predicts 15 percent growth.
NICTD isn't sure if it can do its own study or if the study must come from a state-sanctioned process and agency, Hanas said. It has started contacting state offices about alternatives.
Other issues may slow rail plans: The South Shore line in Chesterton, the increased use of scarce railroad lines to haul cargo and the need to use Metra lines in Illinois.
Metra is planning for a Peotone airport, Hanas said.
Because of planning rigors, a commuter line would be built in phases. The section in Munster, where the Valparaiso and Lowell trains would meet, would be finished first.
Rex Richards, president of the Greater Valparaiso Chamber of Commerce, said chamber members want the commuter line and NICTD to think of them as an ally.
"We'll do anything we can from the business perspective to help you," he said.